Tajikistan making sacrifices for the future

Tajikistan is an ancient land and one of the oldest states in human history, having been founded by the Samani dynasty in the 9^th century, long before territories such as Great Britain or other European nations became unified states. Yet for all this, Tajikistan has remained impoverished and sidelined throughout much of its existence.

The present day state of Tajikistan in its modern nation-state form is relatively young, having only achieved independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 after over a century of incorporation which saw the current political borders of the country drawn up. Before this, the territory was divided between various foreign influences, often becoming a political pawn or a battleground for foreign interests.

Tajikistan has, therefore, rarely been able to decide her own fate and now after nearly two decades of independence the country remains reliant on foreign money, investment, electricity and oil. With a GDP of just US$800 per capita, the majority of Tajikistan’s 7.3 million people live in poverty or rural subsistence. To a large extent, this is not a bad thing, traditional ways of life are one of the enduring legacies of our country, a proud people that prefer to live their lives the way our ancestors did, but in order for progress to be made, for Tajikistan to embrace the modern world, sacrifices must be made, and sometimes these sacrifices are very great indeed.

The people of Chorsada, a small rural village in the south of the country, will have to pay the greatest price for progress. They have been instructed by government to leave their historical home before it is flooded as part of a lake that will feed the Rogun Dam, a massive hydroelectric power project under development by the government.

The project has its roots back in the 1950s when it was planned by the Soviet Government. By 1965 a technical scheme was developed and construction began ten years later. It was halted in 1991 however, with the collapse of the Soviet Union and in 2007 the government of Tajikistan and Russia signed a joint agreement to complete the project together.

Shortly afterwards, Tajikistan news media reported that the agreement had collapsed due to conflicts over which stakeholders should have a greater say in the construction of the project and greater ownership. Tajikistan has since decided to proceed on its own and in the beginning of 2010 it put out an initial public offering (IPO) aimed at attracting investors to fund the project, which is seen as integral to the future development of the national economy.

Government officials have told Tajikistan news media the project is essential because of rampant power shortages and deficiencies on the nation grid. At times the country is unable to maintain power even in the capital city. This is a woeful state of affairs that cannot continue.

“The Rogun project means the future energy independence of all Tajikistan,” Dushanbe-based economist Fariz Sayidov has told Tajikistan news media, stressing the fact that the dam will have immense benefits for the country once complete.

It is a symbol of progress then, and its construction has illustrated the divide between tradition and modernity, progress and the status quo. The people of Chorsada, numbering around 20,000 have lived the same way for upwards of 100 years, they rely little on electricity and live off the land, tending cattle, agricultural fields and fruit plantations, the prospect of moving is an unpleasant one.

A series of complaints have emerged from villagers being forced to move. The government has insisted that they will be compensated and will be provided with plots of land on the outskirts of Danube, even the relocation of the villagers has been framed in terms of progress, with the interior ministry insisting that being closer to the capital city will be better for the farmers, with better access to local markets and infrastructure.

But, the land allocated is heavily under-developed, the only road to the city is a hazardous mountain pass and the compensation is woefully inadequate at just 3,000 somoni (US$685). As one villager commented, how is one meant to build a new house with such a small amount of money, and what about his fruit trees, asked the same villager, will he be compensated for them?

For many elderly villagers the prospect of rebuilding a home, planting fields, gardens and trying to survive on the smaller plots of land, is a terrifying one, yet increasingly their sacrifice is being seen by the wider public as a sacrifice for the ‘greater good’ of the country. Yet deep questions remain, questions not only regarding the necessity for long-term support to the displaced villagers, but also the economic feasibility of the development itself.

In early 2010, soon after the government’s domestic IPO was launched, Tajikistan news media reported that around US$200 million had been raised, a figure that falls short of the total US$1.4 billion needed to complete the project. The massive upheaval and expenditure is therefore being done with funds that can only pay for around two years of construction, when the project is expected to take a further six years to complete.

The total cost of the project is greater than the entire operational budget of the national government, indeed its cost is almost a fifth the size of the entire economy’s value in 2010, putting in context the enormous funds needed to complete this single piece of infrastructure. It is a level of expenditure that the government simply cannot afford to undertake on its own, spending cuts of up to 30% would need to be made by every government department and social service in order to pay for the dam.

Certainly the fact that a homegrown power supply is essential cannot be denied, but at what cost and with what guarantees are the sacrifices made?