The strategic stakes are simply too high as NATO encroaches on Russias entire southern periphery via TRIPP and Turkiye just revived talk of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline thats anathema to Russias interests.
The Turkish Energy Minister revived talk of the long-discussed Trans-Caspian Pipeline in early April in a live interview with local media where he spoke about his countrys regional pipeline plans, which the Middle East Eye drew attention tohere. Their report about this followedNew Rules Geopolitics, the X account of thepodcastby Sputniks Dimitri Simes Jr., presenting his proposals as their own. In any case, these reports drew attention to the Trans-Caspian Pipeline, which is anathema to Russias interests.
It was warnedherein early August after the announcement of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) that this US-controlled corridor across southern Armenia might embolden Azerbaijan and Armeniato defy Russiaand Iran by building this pipeline. Last month, it was also assessed thatIsraels Strikes Against Irans Caspian Fleet Might Be Driven By Post-War Energy Geopolitics, namely neutralizing Irans ability to impede this project that could later supply Israel among others.
About that, Israel already receivesaround 40%of its oil from Azerbaijan through a pipeline that transits Georgia and Turkiye, so gas exports along this route or TRIPP (which is shorter) are possible. Even though this would increase Israels strategic dependence on Turkiye, whose Foreign Ministerrecently warnedthat Israel might recast his country as its new regional adversary after Iran amidsttheirescalatingrivalry, its difficult to imagine either party passing up this opportunity to advance their respective interests.
As for the US interests, the expansion of Western influence across the South Caucasus, Caspian Sea, and Central Asia via TRIPP would come at Russias expense since this area encompasses its entire southern periphery, with political and military influence following economic influence. After all, Russia is expected to oppose the Trans-Caspian Pipeline since itll lead to Turkmenistans currentlyChinese-centric gas exportschallenging its own on the global market, ergo the need for NATO member Turkiye to deter it.
To that end, TRIPP is expected to serve the dual purpose of a military logistics corridor, and the US planned dispatch of anundisclosed number of patrol boatsto Azerbaijan that was announced duringVances visitin February represents the implementation of this strategy. Even though Turkmenistan is a constitutionally neutral country, it too is expected to expand itsquiet U.S. military tiesas is Kazakhstan, which dramatically announced its plans last December toproduce NATO-standard shells.
The Russian government is aware of TRIPPs abovementioned military purpose as suggested by Deputy Foreign Minister Alexei Overchukcondemning this projectthats hitherto beenconspicuouslyignoredby his countrys expert community. Putin alsovery strongly impliedthat the moment of truth in Russian-Armenian relations is arriving during his latest meeting with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The Turkish Energy Ministers Trans-Caspian Pipeline plans are therefore expected to meet fierce Russian resistance.
Its unclear what form this will take, and no one can say for sure whether Russia would launch another special operation to stop this project, but that scenario cant be ruled out either. The strategic stakes are simply too high as NATO encroaches on Russias entire southern periphery via TRIPP and Turkiye just revived talk of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline. Russia is therefore either forced to accept these plans with all that entails for its security or somehow stop them since the West wont voluntarily abandon them.
Andrew Korybko
